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The US Department of Agriculture raised Brazil's 2015/16 soybean export forecast to a record 58 million tons, which is 1 million tons higher than last month's forecast. This is because China's soybean import data for 2015/16 is raised 1.5 million tons. 82 million tons. For Argentina, the strong pace of soybean crushing in January prompted the US Department of Agriculture to raise the 2015/16 soybean crush data by 2.2 million tons to a record 45.7 million tons. Increased production of Argentine soybean meal will boost the 2015/16 soybean meal export to 32.8 million tons, which is 1.05 million tons higher than the previous month's forecast. EU soybean meal imports are raised 400,000 tons to 20.7 million tons, as supply in Argentina has increased.
Domestic outlook
Peptone imports are in a strong pace, restricting soybean crush
The US Department of Agriculture cut the 2015/16 soybean production forecast by 725,000 bushels, while the harvested area is down 35,000 acres to 81.8 million acres. The adjustment of production data is based on the re-survey of the South Carolina farm in February. The reason for the survey was that as of the January survey, there were still unusually large soybean crops yet to be harvested. As a result, the final production is expected to be 3.929 billion bushels.
Domestic soybean crush in January fell to 16605 million bushels from 167 million bushels in December. This resulted in a 10 million bushel reduction in 2015/16 soybean crush, to 1.87 billion bushels, a decrease of 3 million bushels from the previous year. The reason for the year-on-year decline in soybean crush is that more domestic soybean meal consumption has been replaced by imported peptone. The profits of domestic soybean crushers are further eroded by the competition of imported soybean meal and rapeseed meal, especially from Canada. The domestic soybean meal consumption data was lowered by 200,000 short tons to 33.3 million short tons.
In contrast, Canadian crushers have a record supply of soybeans, and the depreciation of the Canadian dollar makes them more competitive with US exports. As a result, US soybean meal imports in 2015/16 were revised upwards from 32.5 million short tons last month to 375,000 short tons. Similarly, US rapeseed meal imports are up nearly 200,000 short tons, reaching a record 4.2 million short tons. This year's Canadian processor's canola crush is expected to hit an all-time high. Thus, between October 2015 and January 2016, US rapeseed meal imports surged 13% from the same period last year. This has caused further downward pressure on soybean meal prices. The average price of soybean meal in January was 280 US dollars per short ton, and it fell to 274 US dollars in February, the lowest level in eight years. The US Department of Agriculture cut the 2015/16 soybean meal average price estimate from $270-310 to $270-300/short ton.
US soybean ending stocks for 2015/16 are raised 10 million bushels to 460 million bushels due to lower soybean crush data. The huge inventory scale has already eroded the support of the spot market, and prices in many regions have fallen to $8.25 per bushel. However, nearly two-thirds of soybeans are already on the market, weakening the overall impact of falling prices this spring. The US Department of Agriculture cut the 2015/16 soybean farm price estimate from $8.05 to $9.55 in the previous month to $8.25-9.25.
Domestic soybean oil supply is expected to be slightly tight in 2015/16 as production is expected to decrease, while opening stocks are slightly up. However, export sales and weak shipping schedules led to a reduction of 200 million pounds of soybean oil exports in 2015/16 to 2.1 billion pounds. US soybean oil export demand has been constrained by significant improvements in Argentina's production. Domestic soybean oil consumption data remained unchanged, so ending stocks were raised to 2.185 billion pounds, compared with a forecast of 2.065 billion pounds last month.
International outlook
China's import data is raised, Brazil's soybean exports are rising
Brazil's new bean harvesting work progressed well in February, and as of early March, soybean harvesting has been completed at least 40%. Brazil's soybean exports in February exceeded 2 million tons, marking the rapid development of new bean exports. The US Department of Agriculture raised its 2015/16 Brazilian soybean export forecast to a record 58 million tons, which is 1 million tons higher than last month's forecast. The increased demand for soybeans will result in a similar reduction in soybean stocks in September.
Most of Brazil's soybeans are exported to China. China's soybean import data for 2015/16 is raised 1.5 million tons to 82 million tons. Compared with the previous year, China's total soybean imports increased by 2.2 million tons or 9% between October 2015 and January 2016. China’s imports will continue to grow in the coming months, based on recent shipments from major exporting countries. China's soybean crushing data for 2015/16 is raised 1.1 million tons to 81.8 million tons. Soybean ending stocks are also expected to increase moderately.
Improved market conditions, Argentina's soybean crush has increased significantly
In Argentina, processors have accelerated the pace of trials since the new government lowered export tariffs in December and allowed the peso exchange rate to depreciate sharply. The amount of soybean crush in January 2016 increased by 47% from December 2015, more than double the same period last year. As new beans are harvested, Argentina's soybean crush will remain strong in the coming months. The US Department of Agriculture raised the 2015/16 Argentine soybean crush data by 2.2 million tons to a record 45.7 million tons.
Argentina's soybean meal production increased, so the 2015/16 soybean meal export data was raised 1.05 million tons to 32.8 million tons. Similarly, soybean oil export data was raised by 165,000 tons to 5.925 million tons. The increase in soybean oil production will also boost the export of biodiesel using soybean oil as a raw material to a certain extent.
Usually, nearly one-third of Argentina's soybean meal is exported to the EU. In 2015/16, EU soybean meal import data was raised by 400,000 tons to 20.7 million tons. But at the same time, the strong import of soybean meal may limit the EU's soybean crush profit. The EU's soybean import data is lowered by 500,000 tons to 13.2 million tons. The same is true for soybean meal imports in Other countries such as Mexico and Pakistan.
EU rapeseed demand increases, China's demand slows
The 2015/16 global rapeseed import forecast is raised by 180,000 tons to 13.3 million tons, mainly due to the increase in EU trade data. Due to strong demand, global ending stock forecast data was lowered by 331,000 tons, the lowest level in eight years. For the EU, rapeseed crush data has remained stable despite the decline in domestic stocks. As a result, EU rapeseed imports have increased significantly, and the EU's rapeseed import data for 2015/16 has been raised by 400,000 tons to 2.8 million tons. Production of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in the EU is expected to increase as the crushing data is raised by 450,000 tons to 24.3 million tons, which will help meet the growing demand for biodiesel.
As a result of the decline in Ukrainian export supply, the EU increased imports of canola from Canada and Australia to make up for the domestic supply gap. This month, Canada's rapeseed export data for 2015/16 is raised 300,000 tons to 9.3 million tons. The total Canadian canola export volume between August and December 2015 was basically the same as the record level in the same period last year.
However, for Australia, rapeseed production is lowered by 100,000 tons to 3 million tons, resulting in a reduction of 50,000 tons of export data to 2.4 million tons. China's top importing country's rapeseed import data was lowered by 100,000 tons to 4.15 million tons, as imports slowed in January and Australia's supply declined.
The supply of palm oil is tight, restricting global demand
In Malaysia, insufficient precipitation in 2015 may have a lasting impact on palm oil yields in 2016. Although based on data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, the mature oil palm area was 4% higher than the same period of the previous year, but the palm oil production between October 2015 and February 2016 decreased by 0.4% from the same period of the previous year. . Palm oil production usually recovers from the seasonal trough in February, but this year's growth may be lagging behind last year's growth. In addition, the government's restrictions on overseas workers may also constrain Malaysia's palm oil production. The US Department of Agriculture cut its 2015/16 Malaysian palm oil production data by 500,000 tons to 19.5 million tons. As a result, Malaysian palm oil export data for 2015/16 is lowered by 400,000 tons to 17.65 million tons. Malaysian palm oil stocks continued to be tight in February, and ending stocks in September may fall to a minimum of 1.6 million tons in seven years. Disappointing production has caused Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) CPO futures prices to rebound nearly 23% from their lows in August last year.
Global palm oil production in 2015/16 is forecast at 61.7 million tons, slightly higher than the 61.4 million tons in the previous year. The countries most likely to be affected are India and China – the number one import market. The relatively high cost of palm oil will provide opportunities for other vegetable oil imports, especially soybean oil. India's palm oil imports are expected to be 9.4 million tons in 2015/16, which is 200,000 tons lower than the previous month's forecast, only an increase of 300,000 tons from the previous year. In contrast, India's soybean oil imports are expected to surge 32% to 3.7 million tons.
For China, domestic soybean oil production is rising, which may slow down palm oil import demand. China's palm oil import forecast for 2015/16 is lowered by 200,000 tons to 5.5 million tons. 
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US Department of Agriculture Oil Market Outlook Report - March 2016 Chinese Version
Due to the downward revision of soybean crush data, the 2015/16 US soybean ending stock forecast is raised 10 million bushels to 460 million bushels. Soybean crushing slowed, causing the 2015/16 soybean crushdown to drop 10 million bushels to 1.87 billion bushels. Domestic soybean meal use data is lowered by 200,000 short tons to 33.3 million short tons, as more soybean meal consumption is replaced by imported peptone. The drop in spot prices prompted the US Department of Agriculture to reduce the 2015/16 soybean farm average price estimate from $8.05 to $9.55 in the previous month to $8.25-9.25.